Development of a Risk and Sustainability Based Decision Making Framework and design of an Open Decision Support Platform


Decision making is a central activity in many disciplines (mathematics and social science, economics and business, artificial intelligence, defense and military operations, philosophy, operational research, etc.). The generalized methodology supporting decision making has been formalized in the ‘50s and Risk Based Decision Making is a well-developed scientific field, despite the environmental impacts and sustainability at larger scale are seldom considered and performance assessment methods are tailored to specific cases. Moreover, the assessment of the effects of decision alternatives on the long term system performance considering both risk (e.g. economic losses, fatalities and damage to human health) and sustainability (e.g. greenhouse gas emissions or loss of ecosystem service etc.) is a necessary step toward assuring system resilience. To answer this quest, the activity focuses on the design of the generalized framework supporting decision makers providing a robust methodology that integrates Risk and Sustainability and an Open Platform for sharing knowledge and data in the field of engineering decision making. The framework is developed in such form that facilitates probabilistic assessment and model updating (from data available to subjective judgment retrieved from experts’ opinions with associated uncertainty) and is flexible with respect to the choice of different analytical models. The architecture of the Open Platform is designed to facilitate the storage of information, the organization of analysis methods, identification of performance indicators and models in form of factsheets as well as the presentation of results of decision analyses for communication at different levels.




Simona Miraglia
Centre for Oil and Gas - DTU
25 JUNE 2018